Citigroup downgraded its forecasts for sea-delivered iron ore prices for 2015-2016 to $ 65 per tonne (62% -FE), CFR China. The outlook has been adjusted to reflect the slowdown in Chinese demand and the depreciation of various currencies against the dollar. Previous estimates for 2015 - 2016 were $ 80 and $ 78 per ton, respectively.
At the same time, the depreciation of the currencies of the main iron ore exporters against the US dollar since the beginning of the year helped steel producers, especially in Ukraine and Russia.
Iron ore exports are set to rise to 140 million tonnes in 2015, driven largely by supplies from Rio Tinto (54 million tonnes), BHP Billiton (15 million tonnes) and Fortescue Metals Group (7 million tonnes), both analysts say. Exit from Brazil will come from Vale (30 million tons) and Anglo American (10 million tons).
Supply growth will be balanced as Chinese domestic concentrate production is expected to decline to 50 million tonnes per year in 2015 and 2016, as well as delays in projects outside the Big Three, Citigroup said.
Chinese demand for iron ore in the first quarter of 2015 is also expected to suffer from the impact of industrial lending terms in effect back in the third quarter of this year, analysts say, citing a typical six-month lending lag.
Citigroup cuts iron ore price forecast to $ 65 per ton in 2015
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Azovpromstal® 12 November 2014 г. 11:26 |
