US Federal Reserve policy could undermine the global economy in the second half of 2015

A stronger dollar will limit the ability of countries such as Ukraine and Greece to fight for economic survival, disrupting existing trade ties, exacerbating debt situations and complicating domestic economic development.

Investment capital will be less and less outside the US, which is another consequence of the strengthening dollar. At the same time, demand for US assets will increase in anticipation of their satisfaction after the largest European (outside the euro area) and Asian capital markets begin to bleed without investment.

The overseas operations of US-based multinationals have been a major driver of development for most developing countries in the past two decades, however, the US Federal Reserve is preparing to tighten its monetary policy further - America's return to the dollar's appreciation of liquidity, with devastating side effects for the rest. the world. The Eurozone, despite the growth in the real economy and a favorable financial situation, is vulnerable to risks stemming from the debt crisis in Greece.

Greece and Ukraine are examples of debtors suffering from a lack of structural economic reforms and an unfavorable external environment. While both countries are working with the IMF and individuals to overcome their financial crisis, they continue to pose a serious threat to European economic stability. Most of their borrowings are denominated in dollars, and as the dollar strengthens, their debt burden will inevitably increase, even if they cut further borrowing.

Meanwhile, mainland China is also mired in an uncontrollable economic downturn, balancing between real estate bubbles, a shadow banking environment and the need to implement full-blown incentives. The strong dollar disrupts international trade factors, most likely triggering further regionalization, leaving the founders of TTIP and TPP only significant partners for America's trade.

The perceived negative externalities of the Fed's policies on the global economy are a good illustration of the world's reliance too much on dependence on the United States. Now Washington is unilaterally cutting its ties with all global players except those involved in the Trans-Atlantic (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific (TTP), which will be more painful for the rest of the world.