Peak consumption of copper and aluminum in China is expected in 2022 - 2025

The use of refined copper and aluminum in China is projected to peak in 2022-2025. Copper consumption during this period will amount to 13-15 million tons per year, while aluminum consumption will amount to 27-29 million tons per year, but will then remain at high levels, as reported by the China Mining Association.

Global copper smelting capacity growth is projected at 3 percent per annum to reach 22.5 million tonnes per annum in 2018. In doing so, China will be the main driver of global production capacity growth, accounting for 60 percent of the growth in smelting capacity. China's copper smelting capacity is expected to grow by 1.6 Mtpa by 2018 In addition, global copper potential is expected to reach 30.2 Mtpa in 2018 and China will produce the lion's share.

Consumption of refined lead in China is expected to peak at 6.8-7Mtpa in 2022, while consumption of refined zinc will peak at 7.7-79Mtpa in about the same year. The association pointed to the expected growth in the country's wealth, which is spurring urbanization and infrastructure development, increasing the demand for metals.

The report says that for steel, in contrast to products such as copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, nickel, tin and antimony, demand continues to grow slowly. The association expects that after reaching a peak in demand for products, it will remain at a high level for at least 10-15 years.