A wave of trade and anti-dumping investigations aimed at curbing Chinese steel exports are unlikely to stop the flow, Morgan Stanley said in a report.
China exported 9.7 million tonnes of steel in January, up from a monthly average of 9.4 million tonnes last year, despite the fact that 19 countries, which account for 58 percent of China's exports, are trying to sell some protective measures, the bank said.
The actual impact on export volumes in the cases considered will be minimal, around 15 million tonnes, or just 13 percent of last year's total steel production, the bank added.
China's exports are driven by a decline in domestic consumption from 760 million tonnes of steel in 2013 to about 695 million tonnes last year. At the same time, China's steel production did not decline significantly, leaving a surplus of material for export to the world market.
Chinese factories are not in a position to hold back due to swelling debt levels and their social responsibility, Morgan Stanley said.
Morgan Stanley predicts a $ 49 /t CFR North China iron ore price level in the first half of 2016, before weakening to $ 42.50 /t CFR in the second half of this year.
Trade investigations have minimal impact on Chinese exports
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Azovpromstal® 18 February 2016 г. 10:46 |
