The forecasts made by the World Steel Association in its latest October survey reflect a relatively favorable picture for the global steel industry, and this is not just China.
The outlook promises growth outside of China at 2.6% this year and rising to 3% in 2018. In contrast, China's numbers have been skewed by the sleight of hand of statistics.
Chinese Numerals Clause
Chinese demand growth is projected at 12.5% in 2017. Much of it, however, stems from the closure of Chinese induction furnaces this year, redistributing demand to government-owned traditional metallurgical facilities. The true figure for core growth looks more like 3%, and is expected to flat next year as stimulus disappears and the economy continues to balance between infrastructure investment and consumption.
Global Growth
The good news for the report is that the World Steel Association expects growth in both developed and developing countries to be widespread. However, China remains the world's largest producer, so the results of growth in one country here in 2018 are likely to determine the overall direction of the global steel market.
Much will depend on how demand unfolds as the economy continues to cool. With the prospect of significant short-term cuts in China's manufacturing capacity this winter, manufacturers elsewhere should hope prices could rise in 2018. Much will depend on continued growth and discipline among Chinese manufacturers.
Forecast by the World Steel Association
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Azovpromstal® 31 October 2017 г. 12:11 |
