China will remain a major player for global commodity demand

China's influence on basic commodities is likely to remain the single most important driver of supply and demand in 2018, but that doesn't mean next year will be just a repeat of what happened this year.

China's increased use of natural gas should have been negative for the country's coal imports, but this has yet to be proven. The coking coal used in steelmaking is likely to have a solid year in 2018 given expectations that China's steel industry is set to increase production to around 832 million tonnes, a modest increase from 830 million tonnes expected this year.

Copper is one of the main commodities where China's influence has been muted this year, with imports of rough copper falling 5 percent in the first 11 months to 4.24 million tonnes.

Despite this downturn, copper prices in London are up 25 percent this year, suggesting that supply shortages and demand in other countries were more important than for China.

Supply problems may well dominate copper history next year, but China could also increase its consumption with stronger industrial output and the rise of copper-consuming electric vehicles.

While crude oil has been dominated by the continued efforts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to contain supply, China has once again dominated the history of demand.

Interactions between OPEC and producers outside of the deal, such as US shale drillers, are likely to be headline news for crude oil again in 2018.

But it's worth noting that China's crude oil imports in the first 11 months of this year amounted to about 8.44 million barrels. This makes China the main driver of demand growth.

Thus, what happens to China's import demand for raw materials will play a role in how the global supply and demand balance turns out in 2018.