Metinvest estimates Ukraine's revenue in case of full unblocking of ports at $20 billion a year

The mining and metallurgical group Metinvest estimates Ukraine's foreign exchange earnings with the complete unblocking of the country's ports at $ 20 billion a year, at the same time, the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the "grain agreement" allows Ukraine to completely unblock sea ports, said the head of the project office of the general director of Metinvest Holding LLC "Alexander Vodoviz on the air.

According to him, there is no alternative to the complete unblocking of Ukrainian ports for all cargoes, shipping by road and rail through the western crossings is severely limited by their capacity and does not pass at cost. During a turbulent situation on international markets, Russia's withdrawal from the grain agreements was big news for the Ukrainian economy. Although this agreement did not de facto work over the past three months, its impact on regional trade and logistics in the future is an important factor.

The Russian side decided to withdraw on the initiative a long time ago, after which it began to slow down the work of the grain corridor, and now this decision has simply been formalized. At the same time, he believes that the grain agreement has become a kind of "legitimization of piracy" in the Black Sea.

The "grain agreement" legitimized Russia's right to have only those ships that it wants go out, and only in a certain order. And the test she desires. It turns out that all Russian ships go with everything, but our ships do not leave. For us, the price of the issue, if all the ships go - somewhere around $20 billion a year, for them - from $80 to $100 billion. Here is the entire Azov-Black Sea basin of the Russian Federation, all goods leaving through the Bosphorus, for them this issue is $100 billion. We Somehow they forgot about this issue a little," Vodoviz said.

He stressed that "it is necessary to return to the full functioning of Ukrainian seaports, as it was before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation."

“And such conditions should be set for the Russians. Look, we are not only interested in grain, we want to get all the products. Why are all your products leaving, and we have only grain? For example, let's take US aid for last year. Direct aid to the budget - $7.2 billion IMF assistance - $3.5 billion Tax revenues - from $5.5 billion Tax revenues from ports only"

He clarified that grain is only 40% of what Ukraine supplied for export by sea. Another 40% is metal, and 20% is everything else. He suggested that the talks at one time were focused specifically on grain because of the participation of the UN in them.

“There was a UN that benefited from Russia releasing the grain. Why is it beneficial for them? With all due respect to the UN, they do not think about the economic interests of Ukraine, it is important for them what will happen in Europe, what will happen in the world. And what will happen then? For Ukraine, the solution is when all ports are opened and all products leave," the head of the project office stressed.

He supported the decision of the Ministry of Defense to declare all ships that will move to Russian-controlled ports as military targets. Ukraine must show strength in the Black Sea in order to have a better position in the upcoming negotiations.

Another argument for negotiations may be the calculations of the Federation of Employers of Ukraine. According to them, financial assistance from the United States for 2022 amounted to $18 billion. Unblocking ports also gives $18 billion.

"The level of the issue immediately acquires a different content. Then our partners should also see that if we open ports for everything, then they can reduce assistance, and the burden on their budget is reduced," the expert said.

He explained that without the opening of ports, Ukraine has only two options - the railway and motor vehicles. But then there are questions of cost and throughput.

“There is logistics, there is the cost of this logistics. If you increase the corridor for products shipped by ship, you now send them by rail, it is clear that their cost will be very high. And here the question is whether the manufacturer is ready to ship it at a loss or not ? We will do?"

At the same time, he stated that even after all the sanctions, Russian metal is selling well in Europe. “There are 11 packages of sanctions that have been introduced. In these packages of sanctions, metal was partially banned somewhere, but the main types of products supplied by Russia were not banned. It turns out a paradox: we cannot export our products by rail, and Russians are replacing us there. What are the Europeans doing - Willingly buy Europeans?

He concluded that the decision to unblock Ukrainian ports should be systemic and needs the joint work of several ministries.