In the modern world, weather forecasting is one of the most important planning tools. Weather forecast is a huge driving force in various industries and agriculture. The weather has a huge impact on the daily life of people, especially those living in cities along the coast, where the weather can be quite variable. Such cities include Mariupol, so city residents often want to know weather forecast for the month of Mariupol . An exhaustive answer to this question is provided by the Pogodnik portal, which presents not only short-term, but also long-term weather forecast for the cities of Ukraine and the world.
How long-term forecasting is done
Greek philosophers talked a lot about meteorology, and many of them were engaged in weather forecasting. However, the scientific study of meteorology did not develop until measuring instruments such as the barometer and thermometer were invented. The main breakthrough in meteorological measurements came with the launch of the first meteorological satellite.
In a sense, weather forecasting is still carried out in the same way as it was with ancient people, namely, observing and predicting changes. Modern instruments used to measure temperature, pressure, wind speed and humidity in the 21st century would surely surprise them, and the results are obviously much better today. Nevertheless, even the most complicated forecast, made on a supercomputer, requires an analysis of a set of measurements of the state of the atmosphere, and also takes into account the initial picture of temperature, wind and other basic elements for a certain region.
However, a modern approach to weather forecasting can only be realized when experts at various meteorological stations quickly exchange many such observations and enter them on a synoptic weather map to display models of pressure, wind, temperature, cloud conditions and precipitation at a certain place in specific time.
The limit for daily forecasts based on the “baseline” approach is about two weeks. Thus, most long-term forecasts predict deviations from normal conditions for a given month or season.
Such deviations are called anomalies. The forecast may say that "spring temperatures according to the weather forecast in Mariupol have a 65 percent chance of being above normal." This conclusion will be made on the basis of the forecast anomaly map, which shows the nature of the temperature or precipitation anomalies.
Verification shows that forecasts of temperature anomalies are more reliable than forecasts of precipitation, that monthly forecasts are better than seasonal forecasts, and that winter months are slightly more predictable than other seasons.
Weather Forecast provided by Pogodnik
