In the current season, wheat is likely to maintain its leading position in the Ukrainian grain market in terms of production and export volumes. According to APK-Inform analysts, the export potential of wheat in 2015/16 is 14.1 million tons. Active export of wheat strengthened Ukraine's position in the world market, and also allowed the development of new sales markets. But in 2016/17, the situation could change dramatically.
Difficult weather conditions in the fall of 2015 did not allow farmers to implement work on sowing winter wheat on a full scale. Thus, the sown area of cereals has been reduced to 5.98 million hectares, which is 12 percent less than in the previous season (6.8 million hectares). According to APK-Inform analysts, in 2016 the harvested areas of winter wheat will amount to about 5.68 million hectares, which can provide a harvest of 18.6 million tons with an average yield over the last 5 years of 3.27 tons /ha.
It is expected that the planted areas of spring wheat will amount to about 190 thousand hectares, with an average yield of 2.96 t /ha, which will form production volumes at the level of 562 thousand tons. This brings the cumulative total wheat harvest to 19.2 million tonnes, down 28 percent from the current season's 26.5 million tonnes.
It should be noted that this rather pessimistic forecast shows the worst-case scenario. Under favorable weather conditions, the country has every chance to get slightly better profitability indicators and a slight decrease in the volume of wheat harvest.
In any case, in the 2016/17 season, a slight decrease in the total volume of wheat in Ukraine is expected, which will have an impact on the formation of grain export potential and the formation of prices. In addition, the quality indicators of the new harvest grain and food grain reserves to meet the needs of domestic grain processors, as well as the form of export consignments, will play a very significant role in shaping the market situation.
Source: The Financial
In 2016, wheat production in Ukraine may decrease by 28 percent
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Azovpromstal® 6 March 2016 г. 12:50 |
