Latest World Bank Commodity Price Forecast 2016

John Buffes, World Bank Senior Economist in charge of the latest commodity price forecasts, said: “We expect energy and commodity prices to be slightly higher than at the beginning of this year as markets gradually return to equilibrium after a period excess supply ”.

“However, we believe that energy prices may return to a decline if OPEC decides to significantly increase production, and production in countries outside of OPEC also does not fall rapidly,” adds John Buffes. In April, crude oil prices rose to $ 41 a barrel from a low of $ 25 in mid-January, due to disruptions in oil production in Iraq and Nigeria, as well as a decline in production of mainly oil shale in the United States.

The World Bank expects prices for all major commodities to fall in 2016 from the previous year due to strong supplies. In the case of industrial raw materials (oil, metals and agricultural products), the decline may be associated with weak prospects for economic growth in emerging markets.

The World Bank expects energy prices, including oil, gas and coal, to fall an average of 19 3 percent in 2016 compared to 2015, slightly less than the 24.7 percent decline in January. Prices for commodities such as metals and rocks, agricultural raw materials and fertilizers are expected to decline by an average 5.1 percent, stronger than the 3.7 percent the bank expected in January. Industrial metal prices are set to fall 8.2 percent in 2016, slightly less than 10.2 percent in January. This is due to expectations of strong growth in demand in China.