Rusal predicts growing aluminum deficit in 2017

Russian aluminum producer Rusal said it expects the global aluminum deficit to increase to 1.1 million tonnes in 2017 from 0.6 million tonnes in 2016, as demand is growing strongly, outstripping supply growth.

Rusal determined the global demand for aluminum in 2017 at 62.7 million tons, which is 5% higher compared to a year earlier, and the supply at 61.6 million tons, which is 4.3% higher.

Aluminum demand in China is expected to grow 6.7% to 33.5 million tonnes in 2017, while demand outside China is forecast to grow 3.3% to 29.2 million tonnes.

But China's supplies will remain relatively tight due to the government's new anti-pollution measures. Aluminum production in China is expected to grow 6% to 34.3 million tonnes in 2017.

“The country may still have a high risk of a lack of supply due to new environmental pollution control measures, including the closure of capacity and a significant reduction in the addition of new additional capacity ...”, notes Rusal.

Production outside of China is set to grow 2.4% in 2017 to 27.3 million tonnes, according to Rusal's forecast. In 2016, global demand for aluminum increased by 5.5% to 59.7 million tonnes. China provided 7.6% growth to 31.4 million tons, while demand outside China rose 3.4% to 28.3 million tons.

China's economic growth remains robust, gross domestic product is growing 6.7% year on year and industrial production is also growing 6%. In North America, Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election has led to economic optimism, Rusal said.