Prices for rolled metal in the coming months will be firm

Ugur Dalbeler, CEO of Turkish metallurgical company Colakoglu Metalurji, said that "prices will be solid in the coming months" and he is optimistic about the outlook for 2019, even when tariffs and trade barriers are in place around the world.

Dahlbeler said this while speaking with S&P Global Platts on the sidelines of the World Steel Association's annual general assembly in Tokyo. "I expect prices to strengthen in three major markets - Canada, the US and Europe, which in the end always influence world prices."

Winter production cuts in China could also cut supply, but as global production continues to grow at a rate of around 5-6% per year, “this needs to be closely monitored,” Dahlbeler said.

“The main question is still - how has it been over the past 20 years - China. Because despite all the cuts, production in China is still growing, ”he said. “It has almost reached 900 million tons per year. Consumption is 850 million tons or so. Thus, as long as China continues to export in the range of 5 million tons per month, global supply and demand are in good balance. "

As exports from China approached 10 million tonnes a month, as they did in the middle of the decade, “the whole world has suffered from this, even the Chinese themselves,” Dahlbeler said. “The Chinese are very smart people, I don't think they will make the same mistake again,” he said.

With import tariffs and guarantees extending to traditional Turkish steel destinations and Turkish domestic demand falling, Dalbeler said that Colakoglu, one of Turkey's largest steelmakers, has found success in other markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

In terms of product segments, hot rolled steel has more advantages for Colakoglu than rebar, which “was nasty” as trade barriers strengthened and redirected Turkish exports, he said.