Global demand for coal will remain stable until 2023

While global demand for metallurgical and thermal coal looks set to rise for the second straight year in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years as declines in Europe and North America are offset by strong growth in India and South -East Asia. latest report from the International Coal Energy Agency, Coal 2018.

Air quality and climate policies, coal withdrawal campaigns, phase-out announcements, lower renewable energy costs and abundant supplies of natural gas are putting pressure on coal. As a result, the share of coal in the global energy balance is projected to decline slightly from 27% in 2017 to 25% by 2023.

But demand for coal is growing in much of Asia due to its availability and affordability. India has seen the largest growth in any country, although the growth rate of 3.9% per year is slowing due to widespread expansion of renewable energy sources and the use of supercritical technologies in new coal-fired power plants. Significant increases in coal use are also expected in Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Pakistan.

Coal in China accounts for 14% of the world's primary energy, the largest in the world. Changes in the Chinese coal sector could affect coal, gas and electricity prices globally, for example through fuel swaps or regional arbitration. This puts China's coal sector at the center of the global energy scene. While China provides nearly half of the world's coal consumption, its clean air measures should limit China's coal demand in the future. We project coal demand in China to decline by about 3% over this period.

Meanwhile, in a growing number of countries, phasing out coal-fired generation is a key political challenge. But market trends prove to be resilient to change.

“The story of coal is a tale of two worlds, where climate policies and economic factors are driving the closure of coal-fired power plants in some countries, while coal continues to play a role in providing access to affordable energy in others,” said Keisuke Sadamori , Director of Energy Markets and Security at the IEA. "For many countries, especially in South and Southeast Asia, it is expected to ensure energy security and support economic development."

This is why the IEA views technologies such as carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) as critical tools for aligning current and future energy needs with global and national climate ambitions. To help give new impetus to technology, M