Production growth must match growing steel exports

By all accounts, including the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economic and social activities of countries around the world, one emerging opinion tells us that this experience of several months (5-7 months) is best considered as a sudden deviation from the secular growth trajectory. a kind of dummy variable, while at the same time developing a strategy for the future.

This point of view will undoubtedly cause a lot of discussions and past references to similar tragedies, but the crisis of this dimension in terms of loss of life, everyone would agree, has not occurred over the past century. This is all the more so since we are still not sure of its disappearance from the life of mankind in the near future, the likely dates for the appearance of vaccines and the huge risk of their return in a new form, more destructive.

Industrial activity ceased in April 20 and for most of the next month before the decline from the second half of June 20 could be reversed.

Therefore, it is logical to make the decision of the Ministry of Statistics and Project Implementation not to publish data on the growth rates of industrial production in May-20 compared to May-19, since it was difficult to collect data on production in the current period and continue to come. for April and May. This flow cannot be compared with the usual scenario that existed at the beginning of last year. From the May 20 indices, it can be seen that the production index of 82.4 in May 20 (partial production) is an improvement over 41.5 (almost zero production) in April 20.

The IIP for May 20 (88.4) is better than the previous month, but much lower compared to May 19 (135.4). Among the user segments, the highest monthly growth was in the infrastructure, construction and consumer durables segments. However, as already mentioned, with more recent data available later, the segment comparison may change.

What is confirmed is that sales of two-wheelers and tractors have increased in rural and suburban areas, and the same is true for sales of small commercial vehicles. This would represent the best sign of robust rural demand due to increased agricultural incomes that support 5.9% annual growth in FY20 with a reasonably good monsoon.

The start of MGNREGA's activities in villages and surrounding areas, combined with the start of construction of unfinished housing and other small projects, helped to expand the market for rebar and lightweight structures. This has helped steel producers in the SME sector to increase production (long products) at their plants. Large-scale retail and rural sales