Will iron ore prices decline in Q4?

China's iron ore market is in a downtrend after a grand third quarter, as iron ore stocks in ports returned to last November levels at around 128 million tonnes as of November 5, while SEADEX 62% Australian ore fell to $ 117 respectively. per tonne, while PORTDEX of the same class also fell to a new low since July 27, reaching 854 yuan per tonne on the same day.

“China's steel production and domestic steel prices have been on the rise lately, but iron ore prices have hovered around $ 3 /t lately, and I suspect the raw material price may decline but hover at just over $ 100 per tonne. ton for the rest of the year, if steel prices in China can hold up well enough, ”commented a Singaporean iron ore trader.

An iron ore analyst from Shanghai shared a similar assessment.

“Over the last two months of 2020, iron ore prices in China may decline further with a likely slowdown in steel demand as winter approaches, and frequent and wider restrictions could affect steel production in the country, leading to further weakening of demand. for iron ore, ”he said.

Well, it should come as no surprise that the correlation between iron ore prices and steel prices is showing signs of weakening instead of strengthening in the fourth quarter, as wide-ranging winter restrictions in China usually target sinter, coke oven and blast furnaces. steel enterprises, notes Mysteel Global.

The blast furnace capacity utilization of 247 Chinese steel mills controlled by Mysteel is gradually declining, falling to an average of 92.27% from October 30 to November 5, from a record high of over 95% in mid-August.

However, the assumption of two market sources was based on the assumption that at least a stable supply of iron ore from major foreign mining companies by the end of the year would lead to an increase in iron ore reserves in Chinese ports.

For now, domestic steel demand in China appears to be in good shape, underpinning rather high rebar prices, which also helped to avoid a drop in iron ore prices.

Mysteel data showed that 237 traders in China averaged 256,967 tonnes per day on average for construction steel, consisting of rebar, wire rod and wire rod from November 1-4, up 18% from a year ago, or much higher. the threshold is 200,000 t /d, which implies strong domestic steel demand in November, the beginning of winter in China.

The national price of HRB400 20mm diameter rebar in China in tandem rose to an annual high of 3935 yuan per ton including VAT as of November 5.

“This year has been