Global steel production will grow by an average of 32% until 2025

Growth in global iron ore production will accelerate in the coming years, ending the stagnation that has persisted since iron ore prices hit their lowest decade average of $ 55 per tonne in 2015, a market analyst at Fitch Solutions predicts in his latest industry report.

Fitch forecasts global mine production to grow by an average of 2.4% in 2021-2025. Compared to negative 2% in the previous five years. This will increase annual production by 378 million tonnes in 2025 from 2020 levels, Fitch said, roughly equal to the production of India and Russia in 2020.

Brazilian iron ore production growth will rebound in the coming years, after recession and stagnation in 2018-2020, Fitch predicts, pointing out that Brazil's low operating costs, robust project portfolio and high quality iron ore are increasingly popular with Chinese steel producers will contribute to this. to higher productivity.

The analyst predicts that Brazil's iron ore production will grow at an average annual rate of 5.9% during 2021 and from 391 million tons in 2020 to 529 million tons in 2025. Over the long term, production growth will slow and Fitch projects a 1.7% CAGR in 2026. 2030, and by 2030 the annual production will reach 575 million tons.

In 2021, the global economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to an increase in iron ore consumption. Fitch predicts global steel production will grow 4.9% in 2021, after contracting 0.1% in 2020. This will be driven by a 7.5% increase in steel production in China and a 6.2% increase in India, the two largest steel producers.

Looking ahead, Fitch expects global iron ore consumption to decline steadily in the coming years. Fitch predicts that global steel production will grow by an average of 32% per annum in 2021-2025, and then by just 1.4% in 2026-2030.