Worldsteel Raises Steel Demand Growth Forecast in 2021 to 5.8%

The World Steel Association predicts steel demand will rise 5.8% in 2021 to reach 1.874 billion tonnes, after just 0.2% decline in 2020, as the overall impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the sector is less than before. foreseen.

According to worldsteel, in 2022, steel demand will grow by 2.7% and reach 1.925 billion tons, which is about 85% of global steel production.

The recovery was largely driven by China, which produces more than half of the world's crude steel. Steel demand in China is up 9.1% in 2020, but is expected to slow to 3% this year and 1% in 2022 as the effect of the 2020 stimulus measures weakened.

Elsewhere, demand fell 10% last year and continues to lag in advanced economies, said Al Remeiti, chairman of the worldsteel economic committee, in a short-term outlook. The pandemic continues to cause significant uncertainty until the end of 2021, he said.

“In these advanced economies, steel demand in 2022 will continue to be below 2019 levels,” Remeiti said. “In the coming years, demand for steel will rebound steadily in both developed and developing countries, supported by constrained demand and government recovery programs. However, for most developed countries, the return to pre-pandemic steel demand will take several years. "

Faster growth than expected
Overall, however, the sector's recovery from the effects of production shutdowns and lockdowns during COVID-19 "has been more significant and faster than originally anticipated," worldsteel CEO Edwin Basson told reporters.

The new short-term forecast revises the forecast for the global steel market for October 2020, which called for a 2.4% decline in demand in 2020 and a 4.1% recovery this year to 1.795 billion tonnes.

The new forecast assumes that the ongoing second or third waves of COVID-19 infections will stabilize in the second quarter and that there will be steady progress in vaccination, allowing for a gradual return to normal in major steel-consuming countries, worldsteel notes.

China's Expectations
China's economy recovered quickly from the lockdown in late February 2020, and its overall economic activity was largely unaffected by the pandemic, unlike the rest of the world, according to worldsteel. China's GDP growth of 2.3% in 2020 could accelerate to 7.5% this year, and then decline to 5.5% in 2022, the association said.

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